The Oscars: Prognosticating LGBT chances for a win
Is that friend of yours throwing a fabulous Oscar party and you have no idea what movies are up?
Yeah, it happens to all of us. And it’s always nice to know the films that did well for the LGBT community and, of course, the ones that were snubbed and slighted.
No one is ever sure how the Academy Awards will shake out, but here are my picks for all the big categories, along with mentions of the movies important to our community. Hopefully it will help you in your quest for party greatness and give you a bit of insight into how things will shake out.
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
No major gay movie was nominated. Notably skipped was Carol, a film that saw Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara portray Carol and Therese in a lesbian May-December romance. The film was well-nominated at the Golden Globes, but saw no wins.
Major critics are saying this is the year of Leonardo DiCaprio, so I imagine that The Revenant will win this category. However, I would absolutely love to see Bridge of Spies come in with an upset. The film is Tom Hanks’ newest triumph, telling the gripping story of James Donovan, a man brought in to negotiate the release of a CIA operative held captive by Russia during the Cold War. It may be unlikely, but I’d still love to see it happen nonetheless. The more likely snub against DiCaprio, should one happen, would come from The Martian—Matt Damon’s trip-to-Mars-gone-horribly-awry.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
In The Danish Girl, Eddie Redmayne portrays the first transgender female to undergo gender reassignment surgery. The film has garnered critical acclaim from several publications, including Rolling Stone and The Hollywood Reporter. However it won no awards at the Golden Globes and is rated at 71% on Rotten Tomatoes. In most circles, Eddie is not expected to win for this film as he did last year for playing Stephen Hawking in The Theory of Everything. Don’t be surprised if Leonardo DiCaprio takes it for his portrayal of Hugh Glass in The Revenant. If Redmayne won, it would be considered a big upset, but it isn’t impossible.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Cate Blanchett makes a showing here for her role in Carol, but the Golden Globe went to Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, and it seems to be the collective assumption of most that the same will happen here. Joy is the newest film from David O. Russel. The pair, along with Bradley Cooper, have seen several Oscar and Golden Globe wins, as well as other major critical acclaims. However, Brie Larson could swoop in for a steal for Room, a film about a woman who raises her child while being held hostage over the course of ten years. This category could go so many different ways, but the safe money remains with Jennifer Lawrence.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
No LGBT films were nominated in this category, which is a hard one. I really imagine it will be Sylvester Stallone for Creed. The Rocky series did very well with the Oscars in the 1970s, so I really think there’s a good chance that the new installment, Creed, will take this one.
However, there could be several different ways it could go. I think there is a possibility that the Academy could go for Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, a film that tells the story of journalists from the early 2000’s trying to uncover the Catholic Church’s role in covering for priests accused of molestation. Films that tell a story like this tend to do well in the supporting actor/actress categories. It has garnered enough acclaim to put Ruffalo in a good spot for an upset.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Kate Winslet win this category in the Globes, however I don’t think she’ll be as lucky at the Oscars. I am going to say that Rooney Mara should win for Carol here. Since Carol was snubbed in not getting a Best Picture nomination, this may well set Mara up for her first Oscar win, especially since she lost in 2012 for Girl With the Dragon Tattoo. If Carol is going to win anything at all, I believe this is the category for it to happen.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Boy and the World
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There
As Pixar usually fares well in this category, with wins for Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, Ratatouille, and four more, Inside Out is going to be my choice. Shaun the Sheep Movie could come in for an upset, as directors Burton and Starzak have never won and Claymation usually fares well in this category.
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
Cinematography is defined as the art of making motion pictures. With the Oscars, it is, essentially, who filmed the most visually stunning movie. I am betting on Mad Max: Fury Road here. This really is the only major category that it makes sense for Mad Max to win. The story was not great, but the movie is very visually captivating.
The Revenant is visually powerful, however with it being assumed to win for Best Picture, if it also won this category, it would signal that the night might be a sweep.
Let us know your picks, and good luck at your Oscar parties!